Biotic factors limit the invasion of the plague pathogen ( <i>Yersinia pestis</i> ) in novel geographical settings

Aim The distribution of Yersinia pestis, the pathogen that causes plague in humans, is reliant upon transmission between host species; however, degree to which species distributions dictate Y. compared with limitations imposed by environmental niche pestis per se, debated. We test whether present-day differs its native range and an invaded biotic factors (host distributions) can explain observed discrepancies. Location North America Central Asia. Major taxa studied pestis. Methods use models determine current climatic Asia America. then inclusion information on improves ability capture American niche. geographical null guard against spurious correlations arising from spatially autocorrelated occurrence points. Results regions. Asian overpredicted across Including along increased overlap models, containing only performed better than alone. Geographical confirmed through did not, a couple exceptions, arise solely occurrences. Main conclusions Inclusion improved fit data region climate variables This highlights importance when investigating zoonotic disease introductions suggests alone are insufficient predict novel environments.